Some predictions I made and how they turned out, here listed by the year in which I made them:
1982: Betamax will beat VHS.
- Reasoning: Betamax is a better videotape format.
- Outcome: VHS won.
1985: Bottled water will not be a big thing.
- Reasoning: You can get water for free. You can buy your own bottle and reuse it.
- Outcome: Bottled water is still going strong.
1985: Apartheid in South Africa will fall, maybe in 20 years or so.
- Reasoning: It cannot go on forever when most people in the country oppose it.
- Outcome: Nine years later apartheid fell.
1988: Crime in New York will drop in the 1990s.
- Reasoning: The crack epidemic will have pretty much burned itself out by then.
- Outcome: Crime dropped, Mayor Giuliani took the credit.
1990: Hip hop will become mostly White in the 1990s.
- Reasoning: Whites will take over rap music just like they took over rock and roll.
- Outcome: The audience did become mostly White in the 1990s, but the top artists remained mostly Black.
1992: Iraqi fighter jets will attack New York.
- Reasoning: Not a prediction, just a strange dream I had. There was glass in the streets, smoke in the air, people screaming. I can still remember looking up and seeing the planes in the sky.
- Outcome: Nine years later Arab pilots attacked New York, but they were mainly Egyptian and Saudi, not Iraqi, and they used passenger jets instead of fighter jets.
1993: Whitney Houston will be married to Bobby Brown for at least ten years.
- Reasoning: She seemed like a religious sort, not a Hollywood airhead.
- Outcome: They were married 14 years.
1998: There will be a Black American president, but not in my lifetime.
- Reasoning: Present-day Whites are far too racist.
- Outcome: Eleven years later Barack Obama became president.
2001: The US will be stuck in Afghanistan for years on end and not win.
- Reasoning: It had little experience in mountain fighting. There was no reason to expect it to do better than the Soviet Union.
- Outcome: The Taliban fell within months. I felt like a fool. But they made a comeback and the US is still fighting them 14 years later.
2003: The Iraq War will last five years and the US will win.
- Reasoning: The Iraqi army was no match for the US, yet Baghdad was huge and the US had little experience in city fighting.
- Outcome: Six weeks later President Bush gave his “Mission Accomplished” speech. I felt like a fool. But, as it turned out, the US fought for another eight years and never did gain complete control of Baghdad.
2007: Obama will lose to Hillary Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primaries.
- Reasoning: Too many times before I had seen my favourites go down in defeat as the top people in the Democratic Party backed someone “safe”.
- Outcome: Obama won.
2009: Twitter will get nowhere.
- Reasoning: What can you say in 140 characters?
- Outcome: Twitter became one of the biggest hits on the Internet.
– Abagond, 2015.
- prediction posts:
- The future that was – how 2012 should have been predicted in 1982.
- The future that kind of never was – how science fiction and futurism from 1968 to 1984 predicted our times (2000-2020).