This is how I currently see the likely future of race in the US. This is not what I hope for, but what I think is most likely. The dates are just to give you a rough idea. The order of events is what matters.
The future started in 1980:
1980-2015: The Fourth Wave of immigration to the US reaches its height. It comes mainly from Asia and Latin America, which boom as Europe greys. This sets the stage for what follows:
1995-2025: Nativist Backlash sets in against the Fourth Wave. This is driven mainly by Republicans, whose Southern Strategy, based on White racism, is starting to fail. President George W. Bush, for example, would have lost in 2004 if the election had been held with 2012 demographics. To limit the effect of the new demographics, they:
- limit the vote (voter ID laws, weakening the Voting Rights Act, etc),
- limit immigration,
- set no limits on money spent in elections.
Republicans make increasingly stronger appeals to the racist fears of Whites to get more White votes. “They are destroying our country.” They. Our.
But it is too little, too late: Whites have been having too few babies. For the Republican Party to stay in business – or any right-wing party that takes its place – it will have to take part in:
2020-2060: The Fourth Enlargement of Whiteness: Non-Hispanic Whites will become less than half of the country during this period. They will maintain power by broadening the idea of who is “White” to take in about two-thirds of Latinos. The term “non-Hispanic White” will become a historical curiosity, something that will have to be explained to my grandchildren. The enlargement will seem almost natural: by then most Latinos will have been Americanized – they will seem like “normal” Americans – while American mainstream culture will itself have become more Latinized.
Asian Americans will be honorary Whites – at best. China during this period will be a growing threat to US power. Asian Americans will be way too easy to scapegoat. Their “success” will be used against them. If things get bad enough, like losing a war to China or an attempted revolution, it could lead to genocide.
2045-2060: Multiracial Reform: Latino politicians, who grew up under President Trump (or whatever form the Nativist Overreach took), will have risen to power and want to push through reforms to make the US less racist. Along with Black, Asian and Native Americans, they will have a majority. But this multiracial moment will not last:
2060-2120: The Fourth Nadir of Race Relations: a White backlash sets in against the reforms. It is two steps forward, one step back. Now that most Latinos are fully White, they benefit from racism and no longer wish to reform it. The new White majority closes ranks against Asians, Natives and especially Blacks:
2070-2100: The Fifth Wave of immigration to the US reaches its height. It comes mainly from Africa, which booms as Asia and Latin America grey. This sets the stage for what follows.
– Abagond, 2015.
- Other possible racial future for the US:
- White America: a brief history
- The ten largest countries by population, 1900 to 2100
- The eight steps of genocide – watch for this