What I predict for the world for the next thirty years or so:
The bad news is, the war on terrorism is going to get worse. Far worse. Iraq is only the beginning.
The good news is, in the end, by about 2017, America will have won: Muslim terror will be finished, it will no longer be a threat to us or to our children.
But the victory will come at a very high price for America: it will be a broken country, it will be a spent force: Millions of its men will be dead, it will be in debt up to its eyeballs to China and its workforce will be shrinking (the Baby Boomers will be starting to leave the workforce just then). The only thing that will save it from utter ruin will be the long peace that will follow. The 2020s and the early 2030s will a time of peace and prosperity.
But the real winner of the war will be the one country that stayed out of it and made the most money from it: China. America might still send its forces overseas on occasion to fight here or there – it might still be the top dog on paper – but by the 2020s it will be obvious that China is the real world power. A few telephone calls from Beijing will matter more than American arms.
The likely course of events: the overthrow of the governments in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt: three friends of America will become its enemies and will be joined by Iran to form what I will call the Caliphate. Perhaps they will be united under Osama bin Laden or someone like him, or perhaps they simply find common cause in destroying American power. With most of the world’s oil – not to mention the bomb – now in enemy hands, America will be forced to act. It will be joined by India, Russia, Europe and Japan. Call these (as they will) the Allies.
China will stay out of it or may come in at the very end: China will want to help the Caliphate but, because America will be in control of the seas, it will find itself filling war orders for the Allies. Not a bad life, as it will turn out.
The main theatres of the war will be the Persian Gulf and India. It may start as a war between India and Pakistan.
After the war a period of peace and prosperity will follow and last till about 2034. Then there will be a time of trouble in which India will begin to stand up to China.
What all this is based on: The 35-year stockmarket cycle and the way American history seems to follow behind British history by about 65 to 70 years. So, just as the Vietnam War is to the Boer War (a war of imperial overreach), so Osama and Muslim terror is to Hitler and fascism.
How about now? Would you be willing to do another prediction for 2012-2040?
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My idea about the fall of civilization is far simpler: Russia, tired of America blocking their Imperial ambition, will detonate an EMP large enough to PERMANENTLY shutoff all electronic communication in America.
With no ability to call 911, we’ll have a NATIONWIDE version of the Los Angeles/Ferguson/Katrina looting and rioting.
A coalition of Russia and China and whatever terrorist countries join in, will attack America. America’s best weapons are disabled by the EMP, plus the military can’t establish command&coordination, so they will not be any kind of effective resistance. Any civilian “Second Amendment” defenders will be nullified because they can’t fight the looters AND the invaders at the same time.
Without America, who will protect the rest of the world? Europe is already overrun by African and Moslem castoffs, so they will have the “choice” of being conquered by Moslems or by Russians or Chinese. Or maybe one of the three will rise above the others and establish a true global Caliphate.
(Oops, gave away which one I think will win!)
South America and Africa WILL be sterilized, or the population will be forcibly reduced to the point where sterilzed or not doesn’t matter, they’ll never be a threat again, and CERTAINLY never overthrow the new owners like they did with the gullible Europeans.
People all over the world will languish greatly, and wish for the era when America and the rest of the Civilized World kept the bad guys at bay. Wishing does not retroactively change history.
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Just a tip: Iran is part of the Shia muslim world. Iran’s *enemies* are the big Sunni muslim countries – they are NEVER potential allies. The Shiite/Sunni split in the muslim world is very real, and violent.
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“The good news is, in the end, by about 2017, America will have won: Muslim terror will be finished, it will no longer be a threat to us or to our children.”
I don’t think anything has changed since 2006.
“The likely course of events: the overthrow of the governments in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt: three friends of America will become its enemies and will be joined by Iran to form what I will call the Caliphate.”
I don’t ever see that happening. Iran and Saudia Arabia are two different sects of Islam.
“The real winner: China”
That seems to be true today without a world War.
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The USA, Russia and China seem like the three deadlocked states from 1984, and unaware of the two rising powers: the Caliphate and narcofascism. Venezuela is a narcofascist State, and México is going the same route. Russia and China keep supporting Maduro, who will just flood them with cocaine now that Venezuela has no more oil
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Venezuela has no more oil!? When did that occur? Al, you need to learn how to lie better, it was way too easy the find proof that you’re a liar. I guess you want to give Jefe, another liar, a run for his money, nice try, no cigar. Venezuela’s oil is 23.14 times that of Brazil, I would guess that’s the reason your president and his military cronies are conspiring with the USA to ‘free’ Venezuela.
Countries With The Largest Proven Oil Reserves
Rank Country
Reserves (millions of barrels), 2017 US EIA
1 Venezuela
300,878
2 Saudi Arabia
266,455
3 Canada
169,709
4 Iran
158,400
5 Iraq
142,503
6 Kuwait
101,500
7 United Arab Emirates
97,800
8 Russia
80,000
9 Libya
48,363
10 United States
39,230
11 Nigeria
37,062
12 Kazakhstan
30,000
13 China
25,620
14 Qatar
25,244
15 Brazil
12,999
16 Algeria
12,200
17 Angola
8,273
18 Ecuador
8,273
19 Mexico
7,640
20 Azerbaijan
7,000
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“Al, you need to learn how to lie better, it was way too easy the find proof that you’re a liar.”
should read as: “Al, you need to learn how to lie better, it was way too easy to find proof that you’re a liar.”
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Fact1: Venezuela oil production is getting close to zero. Source:
https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/14654
Fact2: Rússia is a huge oil exporter, and Russia’s economy depends heavily on it
Fact3: The deeper socialism sinks Venezuela, the higher will be oil prices
Use your two neurons and connect the dots. BTW, Trump also profits from the crises in Venezuela, as it makes shale oil viable (so does Brazil, with pre-salt; in fact, everybody is happy with the death of the venezuelans)
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Al, your tenuous grasp of English and/or sheer dishonesty is responsible for your claim that “Venezuela has no more oil”. How stupid of you to try to use the article you linked to as ‘proof’ of your absurd contention. The only thing that your article proves is the USA’s propensity to sabotage the economy of nations it finds objectionable. Brazil being a good lapdog is eager to join it as in the case of Haiti’s occupation by MINUSTAH. China is going along because it is under Dollar dictatorship like the rest of the world. My two neurons seem to do a better job at connecting the dots than your trillions of neurons.
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