Brexit (2016- ) is the name for Britain’s exit from the European Union (EU). Long talked about, it became more than talk on June 23rd 2016 when 52% of Britain voted in favour of leaving the EU.
Britain will likely sink into recession, which could spread to Europe, if not China and the US, throwing people out of work. Stock markets are already down across the world.
Scotland, where most people wanted to remain in the EU, could break away and become an independent nation, as it almost did in 2014.
David Cameron, the British prime minister since 2010, has already said he will step down. Even though most of his fellow Tories were for Brexit, he was against it, making him not the man to carry it out. Britain will likely have a new prime minister by August.
The exit could well take two to seven years to complete: Britain will have to hammer out new agreements with the EU, particularly on trade. It could get ugly: France and Germany will want to make an example of it so that other countries think twice before leaving. Only one country had left so far: Greenland in 1982. Greece, though, has come close – called the Grexit.
The EU: Britain joined the EU in 1973, then known as the European Economic Community (EEC). The EU is made up of nearly all the countries of Western Europe and many in Eastern Europe. Most share a common currency, the euro. They share a common market where trade, money and people can flow more freely between countries. It has not so far been able to create a common military, though it seems to have something of a foreign policy.
Britain does not use the euro – it still has the pound – but it is part of the common market.
The main arguments for and against Brexit turned on the effects of the common market:
- Trade: If Britain leaves the EU, free trade with Europe will end. Not only will trade drop and prices and unemployment go up, but countries like Japan and the US will have less reason to put their money into Britain as a way to enter the European market.
- Immigration: If Britain leaves the EU, it will be able to control its borders and stop hundreds of thousands of people from pouring into the country every year.
Brexit was heavily favoured by the English working class, to whom the disadvantages of immigration would be more apparent than the advantages of free trade.
It was immigration that gave rise to the nativist UK Independence Party (UKIP), led by Nigel Farage, a Brexit champion. He is a nativist and a liar like Donald Trump, but less extreme.
The Tories promised to get immigration under 100,000 a year. Cameron failed to achieve that through EU reforms. Leaving the EU was the only way to do it. By 2015 there were enough Tories in parliament to push through a nationwide vote on Brexit, which at long last took place on the 23rd.
– Abagond, 2016.
See also:
517
Good summation.
This is a dream that is being tarnished by fear of the refugees.
Let us hope that this fear of Islam does not continue throughout the EU.
LikeLike
And I suspect Cameron stepping down will be to make way for a more explicitly anti-immigration right-wing Prime Minister. It’s crazy how many ‘black’ people were in favour of Brexit!
LikeLike
Good job Britain. When you’re a colony of either Russia or China in 50 years, you’ll have nobody to blame but yourself.
LikeLike
Many American commenters and politicians seem to equate the Brexit vote with the UKIP vote and then compare it with the support for Trump. I think the latter part has some merit, there are some similiarities. But of course not 52% of the British support UKIP.
It was a bad idea to have this referendum in the first place (pretty much all referendums are bad ideas). The voters had only the choice between two terrible options. Either stay in a EU that suffers from internal unresolvable contradictions and lacking legitimacy, or leave and suffer economically.
LikeLike
And just what do you think they should have done?
In the English form of government something had to be done.
Try to understand politics.
The failure is the bad publication that painted the EU as a problem. The loud mouths with the most deception won the day. We should all pay attention or we will have a faulty government in this nation.
LikeLike
Hmm. I am torn on this one. Brexit was heavily backed by disgruntled down and outs too unskilled and unmotivated to succeed in life so they must clutch to some nationalistic Farage hogwash and scaremongering about immigrants and refugees. The Pound is at a 30 year low, Moody’s has already downgraded their credit rating, foreign businesses are getting twitchy in London and ready to hop sticks to Frankfurt et al.
Hey working classes, how about you skip the fish and chips and pints and work hard and study, get off welfare, get you some elocution lessons, and maybe just maybe, you might compete with hardworking immigrants who are leapfrogging you in the city and other financial districts.
On the other hand, England has changed, the Schengen zone notwithstanding, Tony Blair’s labour policies that made it possible for poorer Eastern Europeans the right to work in Western Europe is great for big business but has devastated grass roots heartlands across the UK. I have personally seen previously homogenous parts of England make way for the slavic population so much that these hard pressed Brits have voted against their own best interests to get back some semblance of control in their country.The generous welfare system, of which I am not a fan, means the job-picky, idle, benefit-spoiled working classes where always on a collision course with poor hardworking will work for peanuts Eastern Europeans.
A lot of first and second generation African/Caribbean and South Asian voted for Brexit in the face of an increasingly cocky Eastern European populace afforded better EU sponsored rights in housing, jobs, schools, GPs etc. Most are not willing to trade their newfound social status for the back of the queue when our white Slavic friends become British and ‘white’ within a generation. So ciao ciao to the EU rules. Let them have to apply for visas and compete on an even keel with other usually better educated immigrants from Africa and Asia then you’ll see those sheer numbers thin out. Time to start embracing the commonwealth. I do not believe in unrestricted movement of people across countries.
Brexit has emboldened the rest of Western Europe to hold their own referendums. Its funny how it took the refugee crisis of Arab men marching across Europe to expose the EU and call into question its members’ loyalties to it. Merkel has a lot to answer for, her decisions are what stoked this out of control.
LikeLiked by 1 person
“We should all pay attention or we will have a faulty government in this nation.”
.
@Allen Shaw,
Which “we will have a faulty government in this nation,” are you referring to?
@Merrrimay
I appreciate your take regarding the situation currently happening in the UK. It put much light on the matter.
LikeLike
LikeLiked by 1 person
@merrimay
Thanks for your inside view.
As a Yank, I hadn’t considered economic pressure from Eastern European migrants as a contributing factor…one of many, it seems.
LikeLike
@v8driver
All of the former colonial powers are responding to large immigration flows (from wars they supported) in the same negative manner.
LikeLiked by 2 people
@Kartoffel
Ah yes, the choice between the Devil and the Deep.
The Brits are in uncharted waters now. But who knows, the Brits might surface, swim to shore and start anew.
LikeLike
UK is small land mass. I can respect that they don’t want to be completely bombarded.
LikeLike
There are many secularized that have chose not to practice but to remember as a historical record. Let’s him to make it a continuing trend to calm the masses and think in consideration.
LikeLike
@Merrimay, your post regarding Brexit was quite detailed and enlightening. Thank you!
LikeLike
@afrofem, well with a popular vote ‘referendum’ in the UK, it really shows how much the issue is affecting people in Europe. And all the news stories, seems like it started more or less with the North Africa-> Europe wave some time ago. it’s just really senselss, bombing 3rd world countries till the rocks bounce, then all the civilians come to europe/the US and we prop up the military regimes ‘back home’ it just doesn’t seem like it’s going to stop ever
LikeLike
David Cameron is a muppet. He gambled and lost. Why set up this referendum in the first place?
LikeLike
Sweet sweet nationalism struts its way into Europe. Beware the rest of the world.
LikeLike
@v8driver
True, it seems the only people making out like fat rats are the bomb makers and their servants in high places.
Meanwhile, we all pay for endless war with reduced services in the public sphere like rickety bridges, roads and closed schools.
In the private sphere we have to put up with low quality goods from shoes to refrigerators from once trusted brands. Yves Smith, primary blogger at Naked Capitalism lays out the deep decline of American made goods in the post, James Surowiecki Promotes Myth of Consumer Empowerment in the Face of the Crapification of Almost Everything
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/02/james-surowiecki-promotes-myth-consumer-empowerment-face-crappification-almost-everything.html
The terms, “consumer watchdogs” and “durable goods” almost seem like oxymorons now.
LikeLike
yeah we need factories in our cities
LikeLike
The thing is, places like England, Germany, Netherlands, Scandinavia are more progressive in terms of religion than even America. They may be majority Christian out of traditional but don’t in most cases don’t follow it fundamentally. With that said, the Muslim world has way more fundamentalism and within that comes radical Islam in some cases. I’m an outsider looking in and can say that the dynamics are interesting and is pushing ‘progressiveness’ and ‘liberalness’ to certain extremes in terms of tolerance. Britain wanted to see if they could fix their own economy without taking on the burden to the support the rest of Europe’s problems.
LikeLike
I follow Greenwald on Twitter and he posted up this link to a blog post he liked. Greenwald says he “mostly agrees with it” . (The article)
” The Leave coalition seems to be made up of at least six different strands, with widely different motives and demographics.
There are the blue rinsers — Tory heartland Eurosceptics, mostly now quite old, motivated by dreams of British exceptionalism and an ancient tribal cause.
There are left-behind Labour — mainly in the north of England, Midlands,and Wales, motivated by their belief that immigration has inflamed the pressures of austerity.
There is the Far Right, racists who hated immigration in the first place.
Those are the biggest groups.
Then there are also the leftists voting for “Lexit” (motivated by dislike of the EU’s implementation of neoliberalism),
the Gove-ite ultra-neoliberals (motivated by dislike of the EU’s non-implementation of neoliberalism),
and last and frankly also least the tiny rump of original UKIP, genuine sovereignty wonks like Alan Sked.
In other words, the half of the country voting Leave was and is very divided in motive if sadly united in action. Pleasing all, or even most, will be impossible.”
The article goes into further detail.
The American press has lost its mind over this with much pearl clutching and nashing of teeth. Being a skeptic I’m willing to wait and see how this all plays out. Short term will be bad but this isn’t like the mortgage crises of 2007.
I think the pound will gain back some of its original strength but a lower pound does make goods and services cheaper for export. It’s probable if the Euro mainland slaps on tariffs they will sell their goods to other countries that wont add on tariffs. Their is talk about the EU teaching Britain “a lesson” but it’s unclear how realistic that is considering the amount of venture capital that is invested in Britain from EU counties. Any sever sanctions will wreck their own investments because of the systemic nature of the EU.
http://tomewing.tumblr.com/post/146420642411/obsolete-units-surrounded-by-hail
LikeLike
@michaeljonbarker
Hmmm! Thanks. Glen Greenwald has quite a knack for getting to the heart of the matter.
LikeLiked by 1 person
First and foremost, in my opinion– the EU needs the UK probably more than the UK needs the EU
Britain was strong prior to the EU. They were/are leading member in the G6 and G20, leaders and power holding members in the UN, IMF, and WTO, Commonwealth and other international groups.
Britain retained their own monetary system, the “Pound”, and never converted to the “Euro” – they don’t need financial assistance from the EU
if anything, they experienced losses when they became a member of the EU
Example ( which is a highly debated topic):
the British fishing and manufacturing industries declined and lost jobs when they joined the EU…the EU forced the UK to reduce their fishing rights to 12 miles offshore
So basically, the British had to give the EU control to manage their fishing industry and they had to allow other EU countries to fish off their waters, and by doing so, they put the British and Scottish fishermen in a disadvantage.
They were forced to adhere to quotas and to compete with foreigners in their own backyard.
The biggest complaint that Leave supporters have is that “Brussels/EU is in control”, the British waters are over-fished, and that British fisherman had losses in income because they were forced to reduce their fleets and throw dead fish back into the sea because they fish were not on the “approved list”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/11305123/No-end-to-the-EUs-crazy-fishing-policy.html
Remain supporters claim that allowing the EU to manage UK fishing industry has been beneficial because they implemented a “fishing quota” which has helped to restore the fish supply
https://www.opendemocracy.net/can-europe-make-it/griffin-carpenter/eu-common-fisheries-policy-has-helped-not-harmed-uk-fisheries-0
“
LikeLiked by 3 people
When European immigrants from the east choose to immigrate “west” to find work and a better life, they look to the UK, France, or Germany first.
Why… because historically, these European countries have always been economically strong
Britain and France got wealthy off the backs of their colonies in Caribbean, Africa and Asia.
Prior to the EU, Britain remained economically strong thanks to its relationship with its former colonies that make up the “British Commonwealth”
http://thecommonwealth.org/member-countries
UK has remained a member of the Commonwealth, even though they joined with the EU, but due to the EU’s rules and restrictions, the UK was forced to decrease trade with the Commonwealth and had to allow the EU to negotiate agreements with Commonwealth members
(the EU took over the trade agreements between the UK and Caribbean countries, such as trade in Sugar. The new EU agreements both helped and hurt countries that produced sugar, such as Jamaica.
Jamaica had to meet certain quotas in exporting sugar to Europe, and at one point, Jamaican sugar producers had ended up having to import sugar from Brazil, because there was no local sugar left to sell to the Jamaican people.”
Now the EU has decreased it’s demand for Caribbean sugar because they have switched to getting their sugar from within Europe by lifting a “cap” on European sugar beet production.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/21/jamaican-farmers-bleak-future-eu-sugar-beet-production-cap
These “arrangements” were originally made between Britain and their former colonies, who are a part of the Commonwealth.
because of issue like these, the UK wants to regain control of their trade agreements and there will be an increase with trade between Britain and its Commonwealth partners (such as India increasing it’s investments in the UK and vis-a-versa)
LikeLiked by 3 people
the UK had to agree to many trade and policy changes when it joined the EU. the Lisbon Treaty states that the EU has to make trade agreements with any country that leaves the EU.
my point, UK is losing nothing by leaving the EU, except the time it will take them to re-negotiate all its trade agreements with the EU members and individual European countries. (and non-EU countries)
According to British news articles, The UK will have to renegotiate 80,000 pages of EU agreements, deciding those to be kept in UK law and those to jettison.
I highly doubt anyone is going to Not do business with UK and it would not be in the EU’s interest to increase taxes against Britain
such as the planned merger between the London Stock Exchange and Deutsche Börse
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/24/london-stock-exchange-deutsche-borse-merger-brexit-vote-uk-german
but I guess we’ll have to wait and see how things go, but I think Britain will be just fine
LikeLiked by 4 people
@Linda
I appreciated the details you added to discussion of the Brexit.
In your opinion, will the Brexit make the ratification of the TTIP and TISA more difficult or less difficult?
Info on TTIP: (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership)
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/what-is-ttip-and-six-reasons-why-the-answer-should-scare-you-9779688.html/
Info on TiSA: (Trade in Services Agreement)
http://www.epi.org/blog/tisa-a-secret-trade-agreement-that-will-usurp-americas-authority-to-make-immigration-policy/
During the lead up to the Brexit, Obama traveled to the UK and publicly said that a Brexit was a bad idea. (tell #1)
When the Brexit is approved by voters, Cameron’s first public comments are about him stepping down. (tell #2)
Since both politicians are tools of the corporate class, I would guess that Brexit might put a monkey wrench into their
trade dealscorporate governance pacts.LikeLike
Afrofem@ In your opinion, will the Brexit make the ratification of the TTIP and TISA more difficult or less difficult?
Linda says,
Afrofem, the only way it would be difficult for the USA, would be if the British were in the leading position in the negotiations between the EU and the USA, don’t know if they were or not.
I don’t really fault Obama for being in favor of TTIP because the reality is… it’s his job to make sure that the US economy is strong and business are profitable… and TTIP heavily favors the USA gaining more than they lose.
Based on the article you brought i on TTIP, it seems that the USA is in a “win-win” position,
and if I lived in Europe, I would not not be in favor of this agreement — look at how it wants to lower the standards for food and drug protections that the EU has set in place. The USA is OK with poisoning it’s citizens, Europe is not.
Obama should be more focused on trying to protect US citizens from big business but as we can see, he can’t do sh’t because of Congress.
I don’t really see how Brexit would affect the deal because TTIP is between the USA and the EU. Any benefits Britain would have gained from TTIP, they can negotiate a new deal between themselves and the USA
The USA will still do business with the UK, regardless of Brexit, and the EU can’t do anything about it. but based on what I see, TTIP is not popular in Britain except with the big business.
Here is an article that discusses the UK and USA making their own form of a “TTIP” agreement:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ttip-brexit-uk-steroids-disastrous-global-justice-now-war-on-want-a7099986.html
LikeLike
The main reason Obama and Cameron wanted the UK to stay in the EU, is so that Britain could influence policy and continue to be the mouth piece for the US agenda and help the USA steer the EU towards the direction it wants Europe to go.
With the UK out, the USA loses the ability to move the EU easily because the UK won’t be there to grease the wheels.
Continental European countries are more aligned with each other than with the USA — that’s why Merkel (Germany) didn’t want to take too much of a strong stance against Russia in relation to the Crimea crisis.
TiSA: (Trade in Services Agreement) once again does not put the USA into any disadvantage because in conjunction with the TTIP, any jobs that will come to the USA will go to the local people first.
From what I can see, the biggest issue that Americans who are against this agreement is that 1) it was done in secret and 2) The USA might actually have to agree to issuing more H1B Visas.
and based on the article you brought in, the TiSA would allow this to be done without Congresses approval.
I’m surprised Republicans would have a problem with this, since it would allow more “white European” immigrants in the USA.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Immigration is horrible for Western Countries.
London now has a Pakistani Terrorist mayor.
If, as Abagond claims, it was wrong for the British to rule Pakistan, than why is it not wrong for Pakistanis to rule the British?
LikeLike
@Linda
Thanks. I knew you would have a discerning take on these agreements. You brought up information I hadn’t considered.
I especially loved this gem: “The USA is OK with poisoning it’s citizens, Europe is not.”
As you can tell from the links I provided, I am very much against these corporate deals dressed up as “free trade” pacts.
Brexit may be a blessing in disguise for EU citizens. It seems US and UK citizens still have an uphill battle against secret corporate agreements.
LikeLiked by 1 person
@ merrimay
I can only partially agree with this because upwards mobility is more or less non-existent in the UK. If you start at the bottom, you’re more likely than not to stay there.
My parents have known people who get benefits through lying. One has several kids and gets benefits because she claims to be divorced from her rich husband and to receive no support from him. He pops round for visits regularly in his shiny Mercedes and buys her whatever she needs, but she still gets benefits and spends a lot of it on drugs!
My father is a hard-working immigrant who went to work for many years with long hours, no weekends and no holidays. Not even Christmas. White British colleagues knew he was desperate for money and took advantage of this fact by frequently claiming illness, accidents, deaths in the family and whatever else they could think of as an excuse for not coming into work. My father was always the one picking up the slack, even when coughing up blood from severe chest infections. He never got a raise or promotion. Immigrants may have the jobs, but in many cases their human rights are being utterly abused. Many are in worse situations than this.
My mother is white British, so I do not think she was ever treated as poorly as him, even when working for the same people, but she also worked long and hard without reward.
When my father was suddenly fired, my parents applied for benefits (the first and hopefully only time in their lives) so they could survive while he searched for a new job. They got a response saying that, after taking into account the average costs of bills they must pay, they should have 1 pound per week left, which `should be sufficient for rent and food for a family of four’. I was visiting and read the ridiculous thing with my own eyes. I have no clue how people can lie their way into getting benefits when honest people who truly need it at the time cannot.
I think what would actually benefit the UK is a restructuring of the educational system and a change in attitude towards certain careers. Not everyone is made to go to university, get a degree and take the sort of job that requires a high level of education, but that’s always where everyone is pointed towards. That is the goal, the only success, and everything else means you’re a brainless failure, apparently.
While I do not know the system in depth, I hear the Netherlands has several different schools that set pupils on very different paths: the highest tier headed to university, the mid-level to white-collar jobs and the lowest to blue-collar jobs. All are considered valid courses and education. Maybe if Brits felt the same way towards blue-collar jobs and were offered a clear path in school, they would feel more useful and satisfied instead of feeling this is `the only rubbish job I’m good for’.
I do not know right now what else Brexit will bring, but I do worry about my family still living there. With their expenses already increasing every single year before now, I don’t like to think about what will happen with how far the pound fell. I also feel afraid with the rise of the far right. Even if not all those in favour of Brexit are the type who would want Farage for PM, the fact my brother lives in an area where `leave’ won by a large margin does make me nervous.
LikeLiked by 2 people
@Iris
Very well said. I do want to apologize because I kind of assumed you were born and raised in America.
On another note I know all too well the story of your parents. I often wonder what type of bs lies you have to tell to get help when you finally need it. There is a theory that has been brought up, but I fear it will take it off topic so I will go into detail on open thread.
LikeLike
@Iris
Thanks for another point of view.
LikeLike
@ Iris
The UK welfare system is meant to catch-all, single mothers, disabled etc, there will always be people who fall through cracks as is the case of your parents. Just as there are thousands who lie habitually to claim thousands in benefits every year. Heck there are innocent black men sitting on death row in US prisons today.That still doesn’t discredit my point about the overall complacency of the British working classes in a changing globalized world and their refusal to compromise and adjust their lives accordingly. The second bedroom tax and the £20K per family benefit cap has hit them hard, then factor in cut throat competition from immigrants well there you go. White working class boys are the worst performing in UK schools and while I agree about the minimum upward mobility, the entrenched class system in the UK isn’t going anywhere. That hasn’t deterred African and Asian immigrants in the UK who have had it far worse than them.
I do agree that they ought to overhaul the education system and adapt the 3 tiered German style based on academic rigor. The Gymnasium for the brightest, then Realschule and the Hauptschule subsequently, that make up the workforce in the burgeoning manufacturing industry in Germany. They do have a similar meritocratic Grammar schools system in the UK that admits the brightest disadvantaged kids. The class system has let British kids down, the sneering of certain jobs that many working classes would rather languish on welfare than work jobs immigrants gladly accept. And that’s not even factoring the working tax credit.
The Brexiteers hysteria and rhetoric is hilarious. Given the abuse and hate crimes immigrants are already receiving from the ignorant who voted purely for immediate repatriation of black brown and slavic faces I wonder how this will play out long term. Or the intelligentsia who bought into the nonsense that the NHS will instead receive the 350 mil that went to the EU. Whilst German car manufacturers won’t stop selling their cars to the British, I fear the British have damaged their credibility on the continent. Already they are being urged to hasten their exit, they won’t be able to dictate their role on the European stage as much as they think they can.
Europe is watching the internal squabbles between labor and conservatives parties with amusement, Cameron is stepping down in September with what looks like a buffoon as his replacement. A third of labor cabinet members have stepped down, the rest planning a coup against their leader Corbyn lol Scotland which largely voted to remain has since launched talks with the EU and been slapped down by Brussels. I do love to watch the Brits suffer, sue me 🙂 The British EU will redefine themselves eventually and it will be business as usual.
Iris dear I can empathize with your parents plight in the UK, heck I worry for my parents in Botswana!
LikeLiked by 1 person
Excellent. The school system will always reflect the local population.
The world is changing.
“Bottom rail on top”.
LikeLike
Glad to see the UK reject world government in the form of the EU. I knew there was more support for Brexit, but had my doubts after the death of the Labour MP and the government’s tireless campaign to paint Brexit as economically detrimental converted so many to the ‘remain’ camp.
Now I hope not only other EU countries vote to leave, but countries like Jamaica will vote to leave Commonwealth, and N. Ireland and Scotland vote to leave the UK.
LikeLiked by 3 people
So true. Good post.
LikeLike
@ Merrimay
My intention was not to disprove a general complacency. Clearly it does exist and I think the problem there is that some people live in a very small world that consists of their own lives. I’ve known people like this and they have no clue what goes on outside their neighbourhood, let alone in other countries. However, I do believe that not all of it is about complacency. Hard work should be rewarded and I feel the UK’s old-fashioned system doesn’t allow that to happen all that often.
It’s nice to know I am not alone in thinking the German education system is better.
I seriously wonder if some leave voters thought they were voting for immigrants to leave or remain instead of for Britain to leave or remain in the EU…
I’m glad I don’t live in the UK any more. It was already horribly racist then and I don’t want to know what it’s like now.
LikeLike
@1tawnystranger
@Kiwi
1tawnystranger and Kiwi you were right!
Now, at Brexit Episode 2, we are going to understand clearly what it entails for Black people!
Look at the recent developments:
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/04/16/europe/uk-windrush-generation-intl/index.html
LikeLike
@ munubantu
This Windrush Scandal was years in the making. I just saw an article in the Guardian describing how the disembarkation cards (that prove dates of entry for thousands of Caribbean migrants) were destroyed on the most spurious of grounds: “lack of storage space”. The article notes:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/apr/17/home-office-destroyed-windrush-landing-cards-says-ex-staffer
The records were considered “redundant” because the people were considered “redundant”.
What a mess! Munubantu, thanks for sharing your link.
LikeLiked by 1 person