Republican Donald Trump is now down by 7.5 percentage points behind Democrat Hillary Clinton in opinion polls of those likely to vote in the 2016 US election for president. It is now the middle of August 2016. The party conventions were three weeks ago and the election is three months from now. Trump needs a comeback.
Comebacks past: Since 1952, only one person was behind in the polls this late in the game and still won: Bush in 2000. He was down 5.5 points. He gained 5.0 and lost the popular vote, but made up for it in Florida, the Land of the Hanging Chads where his brother, Jeb Bush, was governor.
Comebacks present: Still, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog currently gives Trump a 23.8% chance of winning. That is based on state polls, the economy and historical data fed into his statistical model. Some of that 23.8% is due to polls not being a perfect measure, especially three months before an election, but some of it is due to a possible comeback, like through scandal or some other surprise event.
Skewed polls: Some polls do favour Democrats or Republicans or have other biases. Some are even fake. But Nate Silver accounts for that in his model by weighting polls according to how well they have done in the past.
Southern Strategy: Since the 1960s, Republicans have appealed to the racism of Whites to get their vote. At first their appeals were naked. That did not work – but racist dog whistles like “law and order” did. By 2012, though, there were no longer enough White voters for Romney to win. Whites have been having too few babies.
In 2016 Republicans could either:
- Change their message to appeal to enough non-White voters, or
- Double down on their racism to turn out more White voters.
The trouble is, becoming president is a two-step process: first you must win party support in state primaries (January to June) and then win broad public support nationwide in the general election (November). The Republican Party is full of White racists but has few non-Whites. That favours #2.
During the primaries, Trump was, in effect, #2, while Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio were #1. Trump won. Racism won.
Human whistles: Trump did not just double down, he made nakedly racist appeals. The received wisdom among Republican media advisers is that that loses you more White votes than it gains. Maybe that will change in time when Whites become fewer and more desperate, but so far in 2016 the received wisdom still seems to hold true: Trump is polling at only 51% of the White vote in a two-way race, compared to Romney’s 56%.
Low propensity voters: Trump could still make up for that if enough White racists turn out to vote. He has been trying to get out “low propensity voters” but, so far, he has not been more successful at it than Hillary Clinton: during the state primaries they both got 88% of their vote from those who had voted in the 2012 general election.
– Abagond, 2016.
Update (November 10th): Trump won. He got 58% of the White vote, outdoing Romney’s 56%. It seems that many Whites, not wanting to seem racist, had lied to pollsters.
See also:
571
I’m not so sure that Trump’s open racism is what lost him White votes relative to Romney. It might just be that his open misoginy lost him the White women, to my knowledge Trump does better among White men than Romney.
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Polls, really? Polls are relics of the past as the Obama campaigns showed. This article shows that the tools collectively known as “Big Data” can determine how individual voters will vote. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/509026/how-obamas-team-used-big-data-to-rally-voters/. How about a post on their use in this campaign and how they work?
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@ gro jo
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@Kartoffel
“…his open misoginy lost him the White women”
I agree. Trump’s supporters are heavily White and male. Many White women are repulsed by his open disrespect.
According to this article by Chauncy DeVega, there is some indication that even some businesses attached to Trump are suffering declines because people outside of his base of support are spending money elsewhere. DeVega says:
http://www.chaunceydevega.com/2016/08/how-donald-trump-used-lifestyle.html#more
Unfortunately, the election is still his to lose.
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I don’t think Trump will be elected president.
It’s also possible that if he thinks he is going to loose he will call it “rigged” and step down so he won’t be know as a “looser”. Michael Moore wrote an entertaining piece about that senerio last week.
If he were to step down Pence could choose a VP like Cruz. In that senerio I think the Greens and the Libertarians would syphon enough votes where Hillary would get elected.
If the Libertarian Party gains some traction then Pence might choose a VP like Rand Paul to syphon libertarians away from the LP. That would be a ticket that might actually win if the Republicans can male the throw parties irrelevant.
The Libertarian Party seems to be gaining some traction particularly as they are presenting themselves as the centrist rational choice. The see their presidency as a bridge between the Republicans and Democrats and that’s appealimg as either a Trump or a Clinton presidency would be polarizing in governance.
This clip is from yesterday in LA Vegas. The video has almost 450,000 views within a 24 hour period. That’s preety good for a third party that’s not well known. They have positions that many here will not like but at least they are honest.
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1365665740129974&id=100000596833677
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Bush didn’t win the 2004 election, but Bush won the 2004 election.
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Of course! President Donald Trump! God Bless Our America!
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The family feud!…… remember that x that you get when you are wrong? That pretty much sums up what I think of this post.
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They’ve been telling you followers, that’s what you are when quoting obvious unreliable sources, that Trump has been polling at 1% with “the black vote” for three months. Like that is factual. Every channel that I know you like, the mainstream garbage pail, has been reporting that, again as “factual’ . One Problem,.. the LA times recent poll had him at 15% with black voters polled,.. Blowing away that “rock solid 1%) So you keep quoting the lying msm, while I show you what is really happening! (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4K56KaJ7Ds)
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@ Dave
Where did I say Trump was polling at 1% among Blacks?
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You didn’t say it. But it has been widely reported as fact (the 1% number) from the same people you are getting polling numbers from. Widely. My point is to say that the media has become so corrupt, that you , as an alternative news/poignant opinion guy, should maybe realize you are being influenced by those very people, msm, that an alternative guy should not put all your trust in.
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Look Ab, it used to be just MSNBC as the antithesis to FoxNews during the Bush years. Then MSNBC got federal money and better whitehouse access, so then…. our trusted news source…, CNN, got jealous and decided to lose all credibility as a viable news source, and have gone full shill for Hillary. They are so “special interest insider” that I can smell the bs from here. You know I’m a truthful guy , and there is no reason for me to choose a side one way or the other without absolute logic involved But you, … different story. See they told you that only 1% of black people like Trump, and like a little lamb , you followed their false narrative to what , slaughter? You tell me why Hillary is better than Trump, and I will destroy you, not because I’m smarter, (I clean carpets for a living), but because you are so intellectually dishonest in this race, it will be easy. .
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The % of the White vote that Republicans got in presidential elections past (counts White Hispanics as White):
2012: 56% Romney LOST
2008: 55% McCain LOST
2004: 56% Bush
2000: 55% Bush
1996: 45% Dole LOST
1992: 41% Bush LOST
1988: 59% Bush
1984: 66% Reagan
1980: 56% Reagan
1976: 52% Ford LOST
1972: 68% Nixon
1968: 47% Nixon
1964: 41% Goldwater LOST
1960: 51% Nixon LOST
1956: 59% Eisenhower
1952: 57% Eisenhower
Source:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/139880/election-polls-presidential-vote-groups.aspx
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.and by the way, I consider myself a justice warrior for right and wrong. For that, I demand a new smiley face… here it is. (I know you probably have no control over that, just a little humor) (http://www.tdmischke.com/clipart/2016/05/green-smiley-face-png-clipart-3.png)
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On the statistics , that may have worked when polls, that are partly run by the same news media that have increasingly become corrupt , were fair and balanced , and scientifically correct. THey no longer are. Trump has ironically exposed that, and his crowds blow away hers. I don’t wan’t to hear about Romney in 2012, he had some crowds , but nothing like Trump consistently, and Obama got way more crowds in 2012 than Clinton times 1000. I think Trump benefited by corrupt MSM in the primaries, but has faced it from them (dishonest coverage, and poll numbers) in the general campaign. He’s beating them. (The media). He finally did pivot, just not on their terms. I don’t want their terms. Look at who is really running them
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I wonder, in the echo chambe,r if you have seen this video.. If not it’s a must see for you .(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W7I92r9GqUw)
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@ Dave
In the case of the numbers for this post and this election, my faith is in Nate Silver, not CNN, MSNBC or Fox News, which I agree are pathetic. In 2012 Republicans were saying he was skewing the polls, but he was far closer to the truth than they were:
Silver is the first to admit polls are not perfect, but so far they are the best thing to go by – way better than the size of lily-White rallies (a mistake that Romney made too).
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@ Dave
In terms of election coverage, my faith is in:
BuzzFeed
Daily Beast
Des Moines Register
Fusion
Huffington Post
Mother Jones
National Review
New Tri-State Defender
New York Times
Politico
Univision
Washington Post
Because they have have been blacklisted by Trump, meaning they are not afraid of him:
I do watch cable news, but take what they say with a grain of salt:
I have not done a post yet on CNN, but they are not any better. They were shilling for Hillary back in 2008. Time Warner, their owner, is one of her top ten donors. But they are cowed by Trump too, for the sake of “access”, giving him a pass on his lack of experience.
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You went where I thought you would go, which I preemptively briefly addressed. Romney never consistently had crowds like Trump, and Obama never had the dismal showing Hillary Clinton has. If anything, if you want to make a comparison to 2012, I’d go with Romney/Paul , Clinton/Sanders. The RNC conspired against Ron Paul, and the DNC were far worse to Bernie in this cycle. The comparison you tried to make , the talking point , of Romney / Trump just doesn’t hold anywhere near as much water.
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Well I can appreciate , on the list of alternate news sources, that you do homework, that doesn’t include the porridge they try to force feed us in the msm. But I’ll also state that some of the sources you listed, although have many amazing journalists, still have a boss, and that boss tells them how to lean and what to write. You don’t . My thing is don’t get too influenced by their obvious agenda. They are all , most of them , run by special interests, and I would argue that Hillary Clinton is the ultimate player in modern times for the special interests. I’d like to write a guest post on “why Trump”. I will spend time on it and would give you permission to edit for grammatical errors. I
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@Dave
My point is, Romney was fooled by the size of his crowds too. Just like you are fooled by the size of Trump’s crowds. SO FAR Trump has been no better at getting low propensity voters to ACTUALLY VOTE for him than Hillary Clinton has. You want me to be objective, I am being objective.
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@ Dave
Wonderful!
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@Dave
If I remember correctly, Bernie’s rallies were also bigger than Clinton’s, but he was behind in the polls. Where is he now?
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For crowd size and exposure Bernie Sanders was everywhere this election cycle in California. He was drawing thousands and Hillary could barely fill a class room. There were Yard signs, bumper stickers ect and it looked like Bernie Sanders was.going to take the state.
Not so and lost by 20 points.
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I don’t believe Trump can win.
He won’t be able to push pass 30% of the vote.
Right now we already have 15% of the population solidly voting Green or Libertarian. The Libertarians are getting some traction. The undecided aren’t going for Trump.
There is also a senerio where Trump steps down and Pence steps up and gets somebody like Cruz as V.P.
In that senerio the third party Libertarians split the vote and Hillary gets elected.
If the Libertarian Party gets to the 15% to make it into the debates then Pence choosing somebody like Rand Paul as V.P. effectively kills the Libertarian Party threat. It would in my opinion make a stronger ticket then a Pence/Cruz ticket.
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Trump will make a fantastic president:
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Donald Trump is losing supporters:
(http://edition.cnn.com/2016/08/19/politics/indian-man-ejected-trump-rally/index.html?iid=ob_lockedrail_topeditorial)
This way he will loose the Presidential election, for sure!
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Black voters. Trump wants YOU!
“Trump has been working in recent days to boost his appeal among African-American voters. On Saturday, he assured supporters at a rally in Virginia that he and the GOP are up to the task.
“I fully recognize that outreach to the African-American community is an area where the Republican Party must do better, and will do better,” Trump said in Fredericksburg, located between Richmond and Washington in the critical battleground state of Virginia.
Trump noted the GOP’s ties to Abraham Lincoln, the first Republican president and the chief executive who issued the proclamation freeing slaves, and said, “I want our party to be a home of the African-American voter once again.”
Trump’s new minority outreach efforts followed a shake-up in his campaign management in the face of falling poll numbers that quickly prompted noticeable changes to his campaigning tactics. In Fredericksburg, he spoke with the aid of a teleprompter, as he has at rallies all this week, and continued to strike a more inclusive, less caustic tone.”
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-says-gop-must-improve-its-outreach-to-black-voters/ar-BBvRTr9?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp
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@abagond
“If I remember correctly, Bernie’s rallies were also bigger than Clinton’s, but he was behind in the polls. Where is he now?”
Yeah, but only because Hillary stole the nomination.
@munubantu
“Donald Trump is losing supporters:”
But , if that guy is any example, the one’s he lose ain’t voting for Hillary.
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“Trump’s new minority outreach efforts followed a shake-up in his campaign management in the face of falling poll numbers that quickly prompted noticeable changes to his campaigning tactics.”
In other words, the man is a shameless bs artist. Who knew?
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“shameless bs artist”
prerequisite for the office, apparently
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““Donald Trump is losing supporters:”
But , if that guy is any example, the one’s he lose ain’t voting for Hillary”
.
Welcome to the JIVE TV era.
Hope everyone is enjoying Amerika’s political Olympics where the high and mighty political warriors, Crump and Clintcon, are putting on the most enchanting, majestic and dazzling BS show (election process) ever witnessed in the modern political era.
Hang on to your seats! The joy ride is only just beginning. More craziness guaranteed!
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What needs to happen to trump
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Trump absolutely could win. Hillary represents the absolute Nadir of the Democratic party, no question. Nonetheless, voters need to mobilize to the polls, hold their nose(s), and vote Hillary. There is no other choice this term. A Trump presidency would be a descent into the seventh pit of Hell.
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I’m with the guy at the end: Donald Trump is reaching out to the black community. Let’s see Hillary make some overtures. What are you gonna offer us, Hillary? Nut’n’honey like Obama? Let’s make these charlatans work for our vote.
(https://youtu.be/ofN4k3LqFMM)
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Just saw this short (1:47) video of New York Times columnist, Charles Blow, explain how Trump’s phony “outreach” to African Americans was just more dog whistle politics. Blow’s core message:
“Trump is ‘urinating’ on black voters and telling them to ‘dance in the rain”
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGy8GqKklA0)
Whoa!
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I just came from the Hillary for president thread where an article was advocating holding noses to vote and now we have Trump urinating. The frequent imagery associated with this election cycle says so much. Both candidates should have been rejected before getting to this stage.
Since the thread is about whether Trump can win I’ll say what is probably in his favor. The last time a party regained control of the White House after two consecutive terms was 1828, I think. Furthermore, the democrats have chosen a rather unpopular figure, in Hillary Clinton, to try to pull it off. IMO it really comes down to whether Trump is odious enough, to enough people.
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@ Origin
“The last time a party regained control of the White House after two consecutive terms was 1828, I think.”
Not if you count FDR (four consecutive terms on his own) and then Truman.
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Oh, geeze, I also forgot Reagan and Bush the First.
Unless I’m misunderstanding what you meant?
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Update: Trump won. He got 58% of the White vote, outdoing Romney’s 56%. It seems that many Whites, not wanting to seem racist, had lied to pollsters.
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