As I write this a month before the 2008 election for the next American president, Barack Obama is leading in the opinion polls over John McCain by 11 percentage points. So at the rate things are going Obama should crush McCain.
But wait, not so fast!
In 1982 Tom Bradley ran for governor of California. He was leading in the polls and even on election day the exit polls showed that he would win. But he lost.
Tom Bradley was black. As it turns out, when a black man runs against a white man in America, between 5% to 15% of white voters will lie when answering opinion polls and even exit polls. Maybe because they do not want to seem racist.
This is called the Bradley Effect. It affects not just blacks, but women too.
So will the Bradley Effect affect Obama, a black man running against John McCain, a white man? Well, it did in some of the Democratic primaries earlier in the year when he ran against Hillary Clinton, a white woman. You saw it in some of the states, but not all of them: mainly those that were less than 8% black. In other states stronger-than-expected black support was able to match or overcome the Bradley Effect.
The country as a whole is 13% black, so while Obama might not win by 11 points, he would still win. But in the primaries he was running against a white woman. Against McCain, a white man, the Bradley Effect should be worse.
The Bradley Effect only concerns whites who lie when answering polls. Some whites, of course, are plain about not voting for Obama just because he is black.
What the primaries told us:
Obama did well among those whites who are under 45 and have a university degree; he did poorly among whites who are old enough to remember Jim Crow.
Going state by state:
- Obama won the 10 blackest states and 15 of the 20 whitest states.
- Clinton won 16 of the 21 states in between – those that are between 4% and 19% black.
Going county by county:
- Obama won the black belt of counties that stretches from Maryland to east Texas by way of Atlanta and goes up the Mississippi as far as Memphis.
- Clinton won the redneck belt that runs just north of that from Arkansas to Pennsylvania by way of Kentucky. Black T-shirt country. The very places where people are most likely to Google the n-word.
- Clinton did well in the Hispanic belt from south Texas to California.
- Obama did well in the Yankee belt that runs from New England to Washington state by way of Minnesota. It is whiter than the redneck belt, but in general it is richer and more liberal.
In the closing days of the primary race, Hillary Clinton appealed to the white racist vote more and more nakedly. Now McCain and his supporters are starting to do that by drawing attention to Obama’s middle name (Hussein) and William Ayers, trying to make Obama seem different and dangerous.
See also:
Hi. I read a few of your other posts and wanted to know if you would be interested in exchanging blogroll links?
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Nice writing style. I look forward to reading more in the future.
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McCain cannot win an election on the merits given his party’s record over the past 8. Sadly, but not surprisingly, he nonetheless has an opportunity to win based on casting Obama as the scary, unknowable “other.” The manner in which the far right is resorting to racial fearmongering has been well documented elsewhere. I won’t reiterate here. It’s disgusting, really, and, even more, yet another stain on the American moral reputation in the eyes of the rest of the world. America, which has held itself out to the world as the champion of freedom and equality, is now struggling to elect a black president even where his superiority as a candidate is so plainly manifest.
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http://www.newyorker.com/talk/comment/2008/10/13/081013taco_talk_editors
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Not this time Abagond; America is hurting and “The one” is going to beat “that one”. Obama will be No. 44
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PLEASE AMERICA!!!
You have to make the right choice on this one. Show us, the world, that you really are worthy of the title of ‘LEADER OF THE FREE WORLD’.
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Fascinating stuff, Aba.
One correction though, Tom Bradley, is the former LA mayor you’re referring to.
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Oh, duh. Bill Bradley is the senator from New Jersey. Thanks.
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To be honest, America is in deep deep trouble, we all are and I personally think that this race is getting than Senator Obama and John McCain.
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U probably read this recently but even Mr. McCain had 2 draw the line at a recent rally in [I believe Minnesota] where one supporter stated that he was very afraid of an America in which Obama was President 2 which Mr. McCain responded with honesty and and candor in saying that people had nothing 2 be afraid of.
Another person at that same rally said that Obama is Arab: – O. To John McCain’s credit he refuted that and went on 2 say that Obama is an honest and decent family man.
I tell u man … I have a number of white friends and I love them with all my heart and soul but some of the things they say and allow themselves 2 get rattled or “afraid” over astounds me. Nothing like a little pressure 2 get some people 2 show their true colors … pun intended.
And on another note … hip-hop fans might enjoy the Pro-Obama song [“AN OBAMACAN“] I wrote, recorded and loaded up on my Myspace Page.
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I saw McCain say that. I am glad he did: I was starting to hate
him – for calling Obama “that one” and allowing a xenophobic hatred and fear about Obama to spread in his camp.
It is very sad how the Obamas feel they have to prove their humanness – as if they landed from Mars or something:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/fourdays
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Felicity, you said:
To be honest, America is in deep deep trouble, we all are and I personally think that this race is getting than Senator Obama and John McCain.
Because I believe in Providence, that God guides history, I think Obama has appeared on the scene now for a reason. Just as Abe Lincoln appeared on the scene just before the civil war broke out.
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abagond Said:
Sun 12 Oct 2008 at 04:41:20
“Because I believe in Providence, that God guides history, I think Obama has appeared on the scene now for a reason. Just as Abe Lincoln appeared on the scene just before the civil war broke out.
True indeed. There is something 2 be said for the Number 40. Biblically speaking it is the number of COMPLETION.
* Jesus was tempted by The Devil for 40 Days and Nights.
* In the story of Noah and the Flood it rained for 40 Days and Nights.
* When Jesus rose again his crucifixtion he appeared to the disciples over a period of 40 Days.
* King’s David and Solomon each ruled for 40 Yrs.
* The Isrealites were forced to wander in the desert for 40 yrs.
There are so many more instances of the number 40. But the one that I like is the fact that its been 40 YEARS since Dr. King’s death. Hmmmmmmm …
I agree with u whole heartedly ABAGOND in terms of divine providence. Dr. King had a pure dream. A dream of equality, diversity and multi-culturalism. A dream that some hoped would die with him. Thankfully though in Barack Obama … I see the Almighty seeing 2 it that that “dream” lives on.
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Yes, Abagond, I too hope that Obama is MLK’s dream come to reality.
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Found your blo while looking for something else. Glad I decided to stop in. I r’ve read quite a few of your posts and dig your style. Especially dig how U dig what I dig the most, THICK BLACK WOMEN!!!
THIS is an excellent post. It give a perspective on an issue of this election that I’m sure many Black folk have not considered
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Thanks.
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Barack Hussein Obama is not an American name. Maybe if he was Barry Henderson O’bamaugh I’d be okay with him.
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