Obama’s campaign strategy in the 2012 American election is based mainly on getting people to vote, not on persuading them that he is better than his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney.
That is why the Obama people make such a big deal about early voting – and why Republicans try to find ways to stop people from voting, like voter ID laws or putting up frightening billboards about voter fraud.
Who would want to frighten people from voting?
Michelle Obama voted early (hint, hint)
Why voter turnout:
- Most Americans favour Democratic positions. That has been true since at least the 1980s. Yet the Republicans keep winning. Why? Voter turnout: more Republicans vote!
- Television ads have been losing their effect since at least 1996. They do not shift opinion as much as they used to. Because the country is becoming politically polarized: there are fewer people in the middle who can go either way.
- It plays to Obama’s strengths as a community organizer. And to how top people in his campaign see the civil rights movement as a model of how to do politics.
In 2008 Obama did so well because turnout was high - the highest in 40 years. That allowed him to win not only all the states Gore won in 2000, but all nine swing states – and Indiana too.
Gore (blue states) loses to Bush in 2000
Obama (blue states) beats McCain in 2008
His pollsters expect the same in 2012, though to a lesser degree: they say they will get about half the swing states this time, which is more than enough to win. (The Gore states with either Florida or Ohio are enough.)
Obama’s re-election campaign began in December 2008 – before he was even president. The first thing they did was to spend a few months studying the 2008 campaign, looking at what worked and what did not.
What worked best, it turned out, was going door to door and talking to people about how important it is to vote. Not email, not junk mail, not flyers, not posters, not scripted telephone calls. Not even the issues or the man. Just getting people to vote.
What worked best of all was pointing out that it is a matter of public record whether or not you vote. Simple shame, it turned out, worked better than the issues.
Not to say that Obama does not run television ads. He does. But he ran most of them back when he still had a chance to shape Romney’s image. He runs them now in swing states, in the last weeks of the campaign, mainly to make up for his terrible performance at the first debate.
The Obama people are not trying to turn out all voters, just those in swing states and just those who have favoured him in the past: blacks, Latinos, young whites and whites with good educations. Judging from his ads he is also trying to turn out women.
A good example are Latinos in Nevada. Even though they have been hit hard by the Great Recession, much harder than most Americans, if he can get enough of them to vote, he will win the state.
Sources: The New Yorker: Obama’s Ground Game, Time: Why the Obama Campaign Is (Still) So Confident About Beating Romney
See also:
- political arguments
- Dan Senor - more machinery, this time Republican
- The first debate
- Barack Obama - back in February 2007 when he announced he would run!
Many will not vote for Obama this time, Aba, especially blacks. We know we won’t. In fact, I shamelessly begged my readers to stay home on Nov 6th. Obama has other “things” on his mind and none of them has anything to do with:
1. Black unemployment
2. Black healthcare
3. Black children finding jobs after college/ tech school
If any other Coloured race of man/ woman was in the white house, make no mistake about it, their people would be taken care of. (S)electing this man to “run the country”, which he does not, is a fabulous and genius tactic.
*claps hands*
Don’t underestimate the powers that be.
They thought of everything.
So you’re saying, we are screwed either way? if Obama wins, black and Latinos are screwed, if Romney wins, black an Latinos are double screwed!
The thing is this, if you don’t vote, you have no voice, no opinion and have no right to complain about anything, period.
Sure, we as blacks in this country can go on and on about our democratic vote, being taken for granted, hence there’s no reason to court us, instead of courting white men and women. Latinos also vote majority democratic but they seem to get a little more, than blacks for some reason.
Still no black female justices but a female Latino justice.
I’m an avid, believer in participating in democracy, specially after what our great grand parents, went through in the civil rights movement.
@Truthbetold and Sondhis Green
I know where you are coming from. I am disappointed in a lot of things Pres. Obama has done and I do believe that he could have done more for this country.
However I do believe Pres. Obama deserves a second term because they are Republicans in Congress trying to stop Pres. Obama. And because Romney is running for president and he is just a flip flopper and lacks integrity.
I wanted Gary Johnson(3rd party candidate by the way)but he has no chance of winning.
So I decided between Obama and Romney.
I picked Pres. Obama because truth is……Congress is the one that has all the power and the Congress is purposely making the country worse to make Pres. Obama look bad.
Also Romney wants to cut Food Stamps, Medicare, Medicaid, Unemployment checks etc. Alot if not most Americans rely on Food Stamps, Medicaid etc. And in the 47% video, Romney said that he didn’t give a damn about the poor. And what he said in the 47% video, he believed in because he doesn’t care about the poor and suffering. Romney lacks integrity because he appeases the racist, rightwing extremist nuts in his party because he wants to get elected into office. Romney is not that Conservative; he is actually a Moderate. That is why he flip flops to appeal to the White, extremist vote. And then flip flops back to his Moderate views to appeal to the rest of the American population.
Don’t let Romney fool you.
It is okay if you stay home, Truthbetold.
Anyways but I am 17 and my mother is voting for Pres. Obama.
truthbetold,
Black Americans fought a long, hard battle for the right to vote — some even died for it.
I’m just curious as to why you feel a need to influence Blacks NOT to vote at all in this election. What could be the intended outcome of having Blacks boycott the voting process?
The outcome of large numbers of Blacks not voting will most definitely NOT have the same effect as the outcome of the famous Montgomery bus boycott of the 1950′s — actually it sounds closer to a wilful return to the Jim Crow era South….
I agree 100% fiamma blu
@Fiammu Blu
I agree.
OMG I hope he wins. I honestly don’t think this country can survive another Republican presidency. Any minority person, any woman or any white person who is poor or a middle class who is wants to stay home and not vote, needs to reconsider. The Republicans have proven they are not interested in what is best for you. In their minds you are the takers and they are the makers. Unless you’re a rich white male, you don’t count in their eyes. You have heard the news reports and the very same from the mouths of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. These men cannot be trusted, period. I’m astonished that the race is even close. I hope Mr. Obama’s campaign is right and that he is able to win a second term. This country depends on it. I also hope the Democrats are able to keep the Senate and win back the house.
i would like obama to win coming election myself i would like to work and stay in usa
[...] "Obama’s campaign strategy in the 2012 American election is based mainly on getting people to vote, not on persuading them that he is better than his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney. That is why the Obama people make such a big deal about early voting – and why Republicans try to find ways to stop people from voting, like voter ID laws or putting up frightening billboards about voter fraud." – MORE - [...]
I can understand how someone wouldn’t vote. It’s not like we have a lot of choices. Based on my values, Obama is an obviously better choice, but definitely not a good one. He signed NDAA and has drones killing innocent people, including women and children. He’s used drones to kill americans. The only way I can justify my voting for him is that Mitt Romney would do the same to a worse degree. Still I’m not certain I’m doing the right thing by choosing the lesser evil. I mean it’s still evil, right? And no I don’t think Obama is evil, just afraid like everyone else.
Lots of people don’t vote based religious/moral beliefs and I can’t fault them for that.
Also, how does not voting preclude one from not complaining. Seems to me you would have a lot more to complain about, if neither candidate measures up.
I just had to post the news item that I stumbled upon before coming here. According to an AP poll, a majority of Americans harbour “negative feelings” about blacks. They say it’s actually gone up in the 4 years since the 2008 election.
http://seattletimes.com/html/politics/2019538293_apusappollracialattitudes.html
So, like all things in America, race is going to play a significant role in the election results. Personally, I don’t think voluntary disenfranchisement is an effective form of protest.
That’s part of the issue with this election. You have people talking about rape as if it were a pleasurable activity. You have folks referring to half the population as lazy, do-nothing moochers who don’t deserve recognition, support, or programs that benefit us. You have people who believe that profit is more important than anything else, despite how the relentless pursuit of it could adversely affect people’s lives. If you don’t vote, you’re pretty much guaranteeing that someone like that will get into office and will create policy that supports and enhances those views. It’s not just the presidency at stake. It’s the supreme court and other judicial offices, congressional representation, state, local, municipal, school board jurisdictions, etc. who decide how you live and work, what happens to you and what doesn’t.
What all those guys want is for you, me, people like us, NOT to show up. That’s what they really want — that’s what they’re hoping for, and have actually been planning. That’s why there’s so much focus on voter suppression, ownership of ballot counting machines, using any and every excuse to block voting efforts.
I have issues with the current administration, too. But the alternative is far worse. Our responsibility as citizens is not only to vote, but to vote and then be in their faces, holding them accountable, and taking them to task when they fall short of our expectations and needs. So far, we haven’t done that. We can’t just be a voting block. We have to be about power and influence, too. It’s not over once we cast our ballots.
I think those blacks who actively campaing against Obama should grow up. The guy got a country which was and is in a terrible mess done by republican administration. When Bush came to power, US economy was on surplus. Look at it now! That is what the republicans really achieved. It is not something Obama can wipe clean just like that. He is opposed in every turn by some very wealthy and powerful (white) men. Obama is not a mircale maker but if he looses, you get Romney and 4 more years of the Bush style poop.
Abagond:
Obama has no coherent strategy. Begging people to vote for him because he’s the first so-called black president is not a valid reason to put him back into office. Obama, and his liberal ideology have done nothing for this country. Making blacks and others dependent on the government to take care of them is not a recipe for future success…I’ve seen this movie before. If he’s re-elected, black people will sink further behind spanish folk and asians as well. Africa will suffer as well, given that, Obama has always been an apologist for radical islam even before he came on the national scene. This election can be a reboot for blacks in the US, or, it will be the nail in the coffin that white liberals have always wanted. Spanish folk have replaced us, we’re just votes to democrats today. Our power and influence within the party is irrelevant, which is why Barack has bent over backwards to please them in comparison to black folk. The Black Intelligentsia supports the continued enslavement of black folk, which is why they’re in government, hollywood, education, and the church…They Benefit!
Tyrone
An Elephant/Not A Donkey
@sam
What planet are you from? You, and other black liberals keep yapping about how bad the Bush years were, they were pretty damn’ good for me. Democrats are to blame for the housing market tanking, not Republicans. Forcing banks to give loans to poor folks who couldn’t afford to pay for them was a concept pushed by folks like Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barney Frank just to name a few. I guess you’ve never heard of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Sam? If you’re gonna point fingers at the other side, know your facts blackman?
Tyrone
@Tyrone
Sam is Finnish. He could be black but I think he’s white.
@Thread
I’m not voting. Call me what you will but since being abroad I have no faith in American Democracy as a system, if you could call it that. Besides I’m leaning towards Marxism/Socialism anyway so in the current political culture there is no place for me.
^Besides I’m leaning towards Marxism/Socialism anyway so in the current political culture there is no place for me.
The guys who say they are Socialist are hardly ballot qualified anywhere in the union:
http://www.whiteoutpress.com/timeless/complete-list-of-2012-presidential-candidates/
@Legion
I know. Plus Americans are largely against it so…. no one really represents my interests. Especially not Obama and the Democraps.
I don’t feel like there is any point in me voting and participating in a system I have no faith in, whatsoever. By particpating I’m just enabling it to continue.
Also I have friends who are refugees from Afganistan, and this War of Imperialism(Terror) is wrong. Before the Americans came, under the Soviets, women had choices and better equality. The War gave the Fundamentalists the necessary stepping stone to power. It irreversibly affected their lives.
Why are we still fighting it now that Osama is dead? Like what’s the supposed reason?
Whatever. I don’t even care. This is all bullshit.
That’s the problem with the two party system,don’t most other democracies have more than two parties to vote to actually vote for?
@tyrone:
I think you should take a long long look at the loan crisis and why it became. It became because the republicans pushed trough the de-regulation of financial markets. That caused the loan givin to soar and because the banks who had the biggest share of the loan market were thoughed to be the best, they gave loans for homeless crack smoker 100%. Also the guys who “sold” the loans usually got the comission, so more they pushed loans out, more money they made. They were talkin about “neutron loans” years before the 2008 crisis. Neutron loans, like neutron bombs, wipe put everything but the walls and they knew it by 2002-2004 and yet. let it go. Blaiming Obama or democrats of republican fuck ups is like blaming blacks about slavery. It is really that dumb.
@legion:
You’re funny guy. There are no socialists in US politics. There used to be some back in 1930′s but not since then. But give those Wall street guys few more years to rape your nation, and you perhaps will see american socialists rising from the dead. It will be inevitable if the liberalist economics continue and your nation marches onwards towards the poverty and economical ruin as it is doing. You do know that thanks to Bush regime, US government is completely at the mercy of the chinese and others?
^pfft whatever Sam. You’re in Finland, right? Well, we all know Finland is part of Old Europe. Which means I can dismiss your opinions out of hand.
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(I’m totally kidding!)
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I know the U.S. is desperate to maintain trade with China and for China to fund debt through Treasuries. How did Bush put U.S. at mercy of China? Do you mean because of Bush Administration increasing the national debt?
perhaps I’m being remiss if I don’t mention:
1) I’m not in America but I think it’s an amazing country anyway.
2) and yes I’m aware of how debased political discourse is in North America which is why I worded my sentence as: these guys “say they are Socialist.”
@legion:
Yes. When Bush regime took power USA was on the surplus after those “horrible” Clinton years. After the Bush regime, USA was on the hole for some 11 000 000 000 000 dollars. Now that is an achievement, not easily done by anyone in the history.
Which brings to mind, only after 17 years of genocide in Ruanda, they now have national health care, against the IMF and World Bank demands, and at present Ruanda is one of the fastest growing economies and modernising nation in Africa. Funny, huh?
Finland is not actually part of the “old Europe” which usually consists France, Germany, Britain, Italy, Spain etc. When those countries were already forming into nations, we were the battle ground between the Swedish crown and Russian empire. And also, we were exploited by them economically and otherwise for few centuries.
Obama’s campaign strategy in the 2012 American election is based mainly on getting people to vote, not on persuading them that he is better than his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney.
@Abagond
The premise to your post is only part of the story. Your premise is misleading because it makes election campaigns look less calculating than they really are. Your premise also makes Obama and his team seem wholesome. “Gee, I just want Americans to get out and vote, aw shucks!”
I’ve been wondering if Team Obama will win another marketing award as they did last election. Then, as I wondered about this, I realized/remembered that the campaign this time around would have been structured around specific slogans, specific sentiments, etc., that the Democratic party knows will work in certain States and/or nationwide. I remembered that Obama and his team run their campaigns with the expertise of marketing consultants. All politicians do this.
I found an interview with a marketing consultant named Al Reis. He has some illuminating things to say. Here are some personal standouts for me, followed by a link to the piece:
•You have always said that marketing and branding are all about focus. So who do you think had more focus Obama or Romney? And why?
Barack Obama was focused on just one thing: “Let me finish the job.” That idea was expressed in his slogan “Forward.” Mitt Romney was focused on attacking Obama for the lack of jobs and the high deficits. All true, of course, but that’s a losing political strategy. A politician needs to first have a “positive” focus. I think Mitt Romney should have focused on his business experience and then used a slogan like “Let’s run the government like a business.”
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Here is where politicians stand on having an informed electorate:
• I was reading an article on Fast Company and it said “politics, after all, is about marketing – about projecting and selling an image, stoking aspirations, moving people to identify, evangelize, and consume.” Would you agree with something like that and why?
Absolutely. It’s all about perceptions, not reality. That’s what marketing is all about, creating positive perceptions in the minds of consumers.
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What Ries had to say about the white male made something click into place in my mind. I totally agree with what he says here. I don’t think Ries went far enough with who the white male wants to keep from “sharing” with and who the white male is competing with, but a sensible and honest person can easily fill in the blanks.
• What about Brand Romney made it attractive to the white American male? And what is it that made him unattractive towards everyone else?
The white American male is focused on becoming a business success. He expects to work hard and be rewarded when his hard work pays off. The white American male resents having to share the rewards of his hard work with the government in the form of higher taxes. Women are more family oriented. They don’t mind sharing with less-fortunate individuals. That’s why many of them voted for Barack Obama.
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In this video (which can be found at barackobama dot com as well as youtube) Obama really pushed a message of, “let me finish” the change and hope we began in 2008:
The interview with Ries:
http://www.firstpost.com/world/why-brand-obama-trounced-misbranded-mitt-romney-518734.html
^^ Remember Obama won Advertising Ages award for best ad campaign, beating out Nike and Apple. We should study his techniques for own uses.