“Blade Runner” (1982)
I now live in a time which I used to read and hear about in the early 1980s in science fiction and other futurist works. Going from memory here is how the period of 1968 to 1984 saw our times (2000 to 2020), some of it contradictory because there was no single vision:
“The Man” (1972)
More or less right:
- Cars streamlined in appearance
- Space stations
- Mobile phones – even ones which can pinpoint where you are on a map
- The first black American president
- Twice as many people in the world
- A worldwide, public computer network
- Global warming
- Female American soldiers are common
- Space tourism and private space companies
“2001: A Space Odyssey” (1968)
Not way off:
- The top chess player in the world is a computer
- Western Europe is one country with one kind of money
- People can talk naturally to computers
- Japan as the most advanced nation
- Homophobia rare in rich countries
Fail:
“I, Robot” (1950)
- Hovercars that drive themselves
- Manned space flight at least as far as Saturn
- Space colonies
- Underground trains that can cross America in 23 minutes
- Military forces in space
- Video phones in common use – with real-time translation!
- There will be twice as many people, meaning that most will be poor and hungry. Even rich countries will be falling apart as the Earth runs out of stuff like titanium and oil.
- The air is nearly unbreathable – so much so that New York is under a dome.
- Los Angeles levelled by the Big One
- Sky-high oil prices while scientists belatedly work on creating the hydrogen car
- Solar-powered everything
- Computer-controlled houses
- Computers have at least as much intelligence as humans
- Androids: a race of manlike robots who live in society
- Human clones
- Communism and apartheid have not fallen
- About 25 countries have nuclear weapons
- Whales have died out
- A new ice age coming
AT&T still uses its 1964 logo- Codpieces make a comeback
- Picking out the children one will have by sex, IQ, height, eye colour, etc
- Quebec is an independent nation. Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are American states.
- The death of fashion: People wear skintight, unisex, solid-coloured jumpsuits. They come in only one style.
- No beards. Many if not most women are bald.
- Tables, chairs, walls, etc, are smooth and featureless. No curtains. Rooms are lit with backlighting.
- Humans can talk to dolphins
- Weather control
- Underwater cities
- World government
- Because of computers most people work at home and live wherever they want.
- There are ten known planets.
“Close Encounters of the Third Kind” (1977)
Possible wild cards:
- Nuclear holocaust
- Alien visitation
- The Second Coming
In short: Robots, space colonies, a Malthusian end of days and good telephone service.
“The Limits to Growth” (1972)
Some books and films I can remember reading or seeing back then about our times:
- 1950: “I, Robot” by Isaac Asimov
- 1962: “A Clockwork Orange” by Anthony Burgess
- 1968: “2001: A Space Odyssey”
- 1968: “Stand on Zanzibar” by John Brunner
- 1971: “The Population Bomb” by Paul R. Ehrlich
- 1972: “The Limits to Growth” by Donella H. Meadows
- 1975: “Tales of Known Space” by Larry Niven
- 1978: “Colony” by Ben Bova
- 1980: “Your Next Fifty Years” by Robert W. Prehoda
- 1982: “Blade Runner”
- 1982: “Megatrends” by John Naisbitt
- 1984: “The Fifth Generation” by Edward A. Feigenbaum
- 1984: “New Rules” by Daniel Yankelovich
- 1984: “The Third Wave” by Alvin Toffler
See also:
some of the things in blade runner did come true; crazy fashion, although not skyscrappers going to 200 floors up, but you have gritty society. (true cyberpunks are people in the ghetto). Althought people are not cyborgs we are hooked up to the internet
Many computers already beat the best human chess players easily.
Abagond,
You wrote, “Sky-high oil prices while scientists belatedly work on creating the hydrogen car.”
Half of that statement is not too far off lol.
LMAO…you have me thinking back to a Tom & Jerry cartoon, where the theme was built around a Roulette-style space station in the “not too distant future”. Some of the fail’s have a glimmer of hope, though far behind expectations (the rich/poor gap is sometimes debatable)…
RE: Hover-cars
Yeah, no Jetsons going on (make-shift planes), though vehicles are much more computerized (parking assist, diagnostics, etc.) than when I was a kid.
RE: working at home
SOME folks have the luxury, just not that many (glancing at the morning commute).
RE: space flight/military, clones
I’d venture to say a lot of this hasn’t been made public. Otherwise, we’re stuck with satellites, Mars rover, and stem cells.
RE: video phones
SOME mobile devices allow for apps (or hacks) like Skype, but I see the point…:/
RE: bald women
Guys are saturated with Bosley ads, but given the use of weaves, extensions, etc., the hair issue for women can be debatable…LOL!
Interesting post. Somebody once pointed out to me that the average passenger car today contains more computing power than the total cumulative computing power used in the Apollo missions.
From a Biblical perspective, the internet might qualify as a Tower of Babel.
The title of this thread puts me in mind of this song….
this one had me rolling:
“AT&T still uses its 1964 logo”
i did a post on robots once, yes things are not what people describe in books but the biggest change even from when i was little in the early 1990s is cellphones and internet access i can communicate regularly with people all around the world that’s pretty interesting.
http://blacknotwhitedippedinchocolate.wordpress.com/2012/01/07/i-was-chased-by-a-robot-no-im-not-kidding/
July 11, 2012 was the date Marty Mcfly went to in the movie “Back to the Future”!
From The Possible Wild Cards Category
Nuclear Holocaust
I remember, growing up in the 80′s, we (the idiot populace) were supposed to be so terrified of the Nuke potential between The Eagle and The Bear (been a long time since I used those terms). I do think the population was scared of this potential. I was not though.
I grew up an only child so I often thought through things on my own. One day, in one of my “thinking about stuff moments” I went over the whole Nuclear War potential. I had heard the famous (at the time) stat that between the two of them they had enough nuclear arsenal to destroy the world more than once. I remember thinking there was not much point in being scared of the nuclear potential. (Being conquered by a foreign force and subjugated for an unknown duration is frightening, i.e. WWII would have scared me; being wiped out by a sudden rise of entropy is less of a big deal to me.) I reasoned, it was important to live in a major city, that WOULD be targeted, so you could die quick. The thing that did scare me was fallout. YOU DO NOT WANT TO BE A HANGER-ON SURVIVOR IN THE EVENT OF NUCLEAR WAR!
My parents fucked up my big city solution when they stupidly moved out of England.
One day a kid told me (in the new location) that the Russians had the region where we lived targeted because we have a lot of fossil fuel here. I remember that day fondly, it put a bounce in my step, and a glow to my complexion.
Abagond, if you also read/were familiar with Burgess’ A Clockwork Orange, please add it to the list. It occupies a shared space with those other works you mentioned.
Your writing makes my world make sense.
When I get tired of everything
i come here
And gradually, I feel better
Not so much that it’s righted my world
But righted my view
And calmed me
That there is a reason to things
Even if it’s not a good reason
You take the racist audacity of white people
And make it the miniscule fly on the wall
The ant on the grand
To be observed, compartmentalized, examined
And thrown away
Your writing makes my world better
Thank you
What about Planet of the Apes? Was that “more or less right”, “not way off” or “fail”?
@ SW6
Do you remember the banned English film about nuclear destruction called “Threads”? Most depressing movie… EVAR.
Hopefully Brave New World’s reality doesn’t fully come to be
This future is a lie just like heaven is a lie.
Religious zealots talk about “if we endure” we will one day be “rewarded” in heaven.
Techno zealots talk about “given enough time” technology will solve everything.
What do both have in common? They are both slaves to time. There’s is a promise for tomorrow. But you know what? Tomorrow never arrives.
Now you read science mags like newscientist they are still spewing out stuff about what “science” will be able to do tomorrow… what to expect in 20 yrs time etc…
Oh please…
^How right you are Wilson. Scientists are often enormous liars. There are rational reasons for this. To the extent that tax $ go in to science research you need to tell Suzy Q taxpayer that she’s going to have a fancy new toy/breakthrough/whatever in her lifetime. Also scientists need to bring prestige to the institutions they work for. In the vein of, “oh yes we’re at the cutting edge of “X” and a significant breakthrough is imminent…” Blah, blah!
Science is an investment though and does require much capital, so you can see how some cheatin’ lies are gonna get told…
One of these promises that broke my heart though was the AIDS cure. Every few months OMNI would run a piece touting an AIDS cure that was just within reach, you know. I dutifully bought OMNI every month. One day I read an interview with a French scientist (Luc something, I think). The whole interview was about a lack of cooperation between the leading scientific AIDS researchers in various countries. Each group was working to figure out a cure* but the Americans would keep what they know from the French; the Germans would keep what they know from the Americans, etc. The guy was making the point that many scientists wanted to keep the potential glory of a major therapy or cure for AIDS to themselves. I realized one day there wasn’t going to be a cure.
(*cure: of course some groups would just have been working on a control not a cure for obvious disgusting reasons of profit)
@SomeGuy
Yes! Threads! Hmm, I might just see if I can track it down. I avoided it back then, just to distance myself from the propaganda at the time that we should be filled with fear and trembling over the nuke prospect.
…not to disparage OMNI though, the popular media did the same thing, but OMNI was something I read regularly.
Yes, you should make more posts like these that tells of a possible future for humanity. Since; by standards, we know the true power of racism everywhere, that’s why I love games like the Mass Effect series (a time that’s about 180 yrs in the future). It makes me wonder that there is still hope for humanity.
1971: “The Population Bomb” by Paul R. Ehrlich
1972: “The Limits to Growth” by Donella H. Meadows
That is still the leading ideology of the U.N. and the American government. What to think of Julian Simon?
This post makes me think about technology inventions and social developments that actually would make a difference or make it worth it
like the solution to poverty illness and crime.
I have a lot of these technological gizmos and i live in the wealthiest most powerful of the technologically advanced societies.
And i regularly experience hate isolation fear ignorance loneliness and depression.
I also experience love community peace knowledge and happiness.
I know we (our species) can eliminate poverty which would impact a large portion of illnesses but crime (the kind that allows the most wealthy and powerful to choose and profit from war property and illness) seems unthinkable and non-surmountable.
Is crime a mental illness?
are ugly people physically ill or the perceiver mentally ill?
Are the poor just ignorant Like I used to be and still am a certain degree?
I asked before in other places – will we /can we eventually solve all our problems and live in perpetual peace and happiness?
@Abagond
Have you read Stanislaw Lem, the Polish writer of “Solaris”?
He writes about the failure of human intelligence to communicate with an alien world. That writing and, even thinking, can fail.
Lem’s world is one where aspects of reality are unknowable, where reason is impotent, people are bad, but this leaves a space for faith to exist.
We may be too primitive to understand the message from another world.
@Anuke Tombei
Good point about Mass Effect (just finished the 3rd installment) I won’t spoil it for others, but (I assume) the main ending of ME3 could make a case for nailing it perfectly in terms of future advancement…O_o
@ Alex
Actually, Alex, Deep Blue, the computer that beat the world chess champion, only won because of an opening mistake by the chess player. On top of that, the computer barely defeated the guy.
And don’t be confused, most computers are not good chest players, rather they rely on brute force computations instead of actual skill, intelligence, or ingenuity.
All that match taught us was that we can create a really good chess playing machine, not an intelligent machine. scientists are decades, perhaps even centuries, away from developing true AI.
This seems to be mostly spot-on, but I wouldn’t go so far to say that homophobia is rare in rich countries. Perhaps it would be more accurate to say that rich countries have public gay-rights movements.
@ Arael
John Brunner’s “Stand on Zanzibar” (1968) was set in 2010. There homosexuality and bisexuality are socially acceptable in rich Western countries. No one in the books I read predicted a gay rights movement. Brunner himself seemed to see it as part of a cultural change where social values become more liberal.
While I know homophobia is still with us – I would say about a third of Americans are no different than they were in the 1968 – it seems like now a third are on board and another third are on the fence. A huge change since 1968 when in America most psychiatrists still considered it a mental disorder.
So while Brunner’s prediction is not “more or less right” neither is it a “fail” – so I put it in the middle under “not way off”.
@ kiril
Right. Thirty years ago people were expecting huge breakthroughs in artificial intelligence so that it would be “I, Robot” and HAL by now. But all the advances have come through better hardware – Moore’s Law – not through any amazing breakthroughs in the software.
@ Bulanik
I have heard of Lem but never read him. I used to be into science fiction but now I have little patience for it for some reason. I still like fantasy stuff, though, like Tolkien and Ursula K. Le Guin.
Telcomcorp
Humans have amazing intelligence and creativity (something that is beat out of most of them by age 30 if not age 12). The moon landing shows that (R.I.P. Neil Armstrong). But the moon landing also shows that in most cases nothing much gets done unless there is money behind it.
My own experience in the computer industry shows that to me too. Computers are easily one of the ten greatest inventions of all time – right up there with the wheel, writing and the steam engine. The computer + the human imagination is just a mind-blowing idea. BUT I still need to feed my family so I wind up working on stuff that is important to people with money. It is like how writing was first used for government records, not for writing books.
Or think of Ancient Egypt which used its amazing talents to – bury kings.
Or: America is 60 times bigger than Elizabethan England and yet does not have a single Shakespeare, much less 60 – even though it uses English too!
Oh wow, this was amusing.
Hovercars that drive themselves — Apart from the hovering, there are many standard models now that park, brake, and do other stuff by themselves. Sucks the fun out.
Military forces in space – technically, yes… check out:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/16/secretive-us-military-space-shuttle
http://www.alternet.org/story/67699/real-life_star_wars%3A_the_militarization_of_space
Computer-controlled houses – Songdo near Seoul! http://citiscope.org/stories/2011/global-high-tech-city-model
Computers have at least as much intelligence as humans
Human clones – see leisure plastic surgery epidemics.
Picking out the children one will have by sex, IQ, height, eye colour, etc — Genetic nazism in its early stages: .http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/03/designerdebate/
Quebec is an independent nation. Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are American states. — Oh dear. Where did you find this? U.S. author, no doubt.
Weather control – http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/01/110118-abu-dhabi-desert-rain-cloud-seeding-controversy/
World government – WBO.
I’ve spent half of my day browsing your blog ;P
I met a guy yesterday just in passing; likely I will never see him again, a quick human interaction. We made a little small talk. But it was the kind of small talk that is pleasant, not once did we mention the weather
. The guy’s last name is Burgess! I asked him if he’s familiar with A Clockwork Orange. He’s like, “Yes, I’ve read it twice!”
For those who don’t know A Clockwork Orange has an embedded language running through the narrative of the book. This language, called Nadsat, is the vulgar slang of the future dystopian setting in Burgess’ book. I always thought Burgess made the language up solely from his imagination. The guy I met, briefly explained that Nadsat is actually based on Russian! On his second reading he spent time comparing Burgess’ language creation to Russian to get a deeper feel for the book.
—————————-
A Clockwork Orange is a beautiful work. Beautiful because the book is asking and answering the questions: What is human nature? Can human nature be altered/controlled? The book makes the point that individual humans are not an aggregate of individual psychological pieces connected like a set of Lego blocks but rather a human being is a holistic river of psychologies; you can’t change one part of the psychology without affecting the rest of the river.
There are lots of thought provoking implications that stem from the book; I’d recommend it to anyone who’s interested in the relationship between the individual and the state and the relationship that the individual has to him/herself. Women will take away differently from the book than men will; the book is also looking, perhaps indirectly, at issues of manhood too.